01 / CONTEXT
The problem to solve
Explore a forecasting workflow for historical Brent crude oil prices.
02 / ENGINEERING
From need to system
- Load the referenced historical price dataset.
- Prepare a time-series input for Prophet.
- Fit and inspect a forecasting model in a notebook.
- Treat the result as an exploratory exercise without a verified accuracy claim.
03 / DESIGN DECISION
A meaningful choice
Use a reproducible notebook to make the data and forecasting workflow inspectable.
04 / EVIDENCE AND LIMITATIONS
What is actually documented
The public repository contains a Prophet notebook and references a Kaggle dataset. It does not establish forecast accuracy or suitability for financial decisions.
05 / NEXT VALIDATIONS
How I would strengthen the proof
- Compare against seasonal-naive and other baseline forecasts.
- Use time-based backtesting and report error ranges.
- Document data provenance and forecast uncertainty.
These are planned validation steps, not already measured results.